Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Herman Cain's lucky numbers

You'd be smiling too, if you were this guy.
Herman Cain has a lot of reasons to smile. 
It is now clear that his win at the Florida Presidency 5 straw poll was no fluke.
Besides a significant fundraising surge late in the third quarter ending on September 30, great polling numbers continue to pour in, providing statistical evidence to the ample "I like that guy!" anecdotal evidence I've been seeing for months:

Herman Cain 77%
Michele Bachmann 9.4%
Newt Gingrich 3.8%
Rick Perry 3%
Mitt Romney 2.6%

Herman Cain 48.9%
Rick Perry 14.1%
Mitt Romney 13.3%
Newt Gingrich 12.5%

Note that just like Florida's Presidency 5, delegates to the NFRW convention had to pay their own way and it would have been virtually impossible for a campaign to "buy" a favorable results. NFRW delegates, representing 41 of 50 states, were also polled about their second choice candidate, and Cain picked up 23.8% of those votes. In other words, 72.7% of delegates picked Cain as one of their top two choices. Also noteworthy is the fact that more delegates picked Cain over the other candidates as the most likely to beat Obama.

Cain is in second place nationally in three major polls:

ABC News/Wash Post (9/29 – 10/2)
Romney 25% … Cain 17% … Perry 17%

Quinnipiac (9/27 – 10/3)
Romney 22% … Cain 17% … Perry 14%

FOX News (9/25 – 9/27)
Romney 22% … Cain 17% … Perry 19%

[Hat tip: The Other McCain]

Mitt Romney 28%
Herman Cain 24%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Rick Perry 9%

...The War Room Logistics surveys have been unlike any other in Florida because they’re based on a sample of likely voters, instead of just registered voters. Around now, it’s more common (and cheaper) to poll registered voters because the campaigns aren’t in full swing and it’s a little tougher to estimate the likely voter population.
And since the numbers swung so wildly in just 10 days, it’s a safe bet to say this is anyone’s game right now. Though it’s not just a two-man race. Herman Cain is a force to be reckoned with.

Mitt Romney 27%
Herman Cain 25%
Rick Perry 13%

...Then there's this Gallup poll, which illustrates the whole "You can't not like Herman Cain" thing in nice, pretty graphs:

Make sure to read the article linked above, but the short story is that Cain's positives are skyrocketing upward, and his overall positive image score is double that of all other Republican contenders:

(Click images to enlarge)
See also:

UPDATE I: A CBS News poll released yesterday evening showed a tie for first place between Romney and Cain, each garnering 17% of the vote. Perry came in third at 12%, and then Gingrich at 8%.

Also noteworthy from this poll:

Two weeks ago, Cain was an afterthought among the conservatives who comprise the majority of Republican primary voters – polling at just 6% support. Today Cain is the leading candidate among self-described conservatives, with 21%. Romney is second among this group at 15% - holding about steady – and Perry has slipped slightly to 13% from 16%. 
And Cain is now the favorite of Tea Party supporters. He gets 24% from them (up from 7% in this poll two weeks ago) and leads Romney (17%), Gingrich (13%) and Perry (12%). 

No comments:

Post a Comment

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons License
Permissions beyond the scope of this license are available here.