Ouch, that's harsh: Congress less popular than head lice and Nickelback

Having a bad day? Take comfort in the fact you're not as hated as Congress.

According to a recent poll by Public Policy Polling, Congress just dropped to their lowest approval rating in American history, a brutal nine percent.

New poll shows Scott Brown in "strong position" for special election

New reasons to smile

Boston's NPR radio station, WBUR, conducted a poll earlier this week that shows Scott Brown is in a "strong position" to rejoin his colleagues in the Senate, assuming John Kerry is appointed to be Secretary of State, triggering a special election.

The poll was conducted with 500 registered voters on Monday and Tuesday, and Brown's favorables are very high, even though it is less than two months after he lost a brutal campaign battle against Elizabeth Warren. 

Ignore the exit polls. Here's why.

The polls are starting to close in the early states, and until the official vote tallies are reported by the supervisors of elections, the networks will include information from exit polls in their reporting.

Remember, polls in FL do NOT close at 7 pm. GOP-leaning Panhandle is in Central Time Zone & open until 8 pm ET. #AndExitPollsAreBS
— Sarah Rumpf (@rumpfshaker) November 6, 2012

You should completely ignore any results coming from exit polls. Here is why:

More on the polling...

Just wanted to follow up on the detailed Romney campaign memo I just posted regarding recent poll results...

Peter "DaTechGuy" Ingemi has a detailed analysis at his blog specifically looking at Public Policy Polling's recent Ohio poll. Basically, although PPP shows Obama up by 5, the numbers seem, well, less than reliable when you look at the underlying figures.

Romney pollster: "Don't get too worked up about the latest polling"

Several recent polls claim to show Obama enjoying a post-convention bounce, and back on top over Romney. There are a lot of reasons to be skeptical of what RedState's Erick Erickson characterized yesterday as "the cymbal clashing wind up monkeys of the Gang of 500," as certain sympathetic media outlets attempt to declare the election a done deal before a single voter has cast a ballot.

After we move past distracting nonsense from nationwide polls (when it's the electoral college results that matter), and polls of adults or registered voters (as opposed to likely voters), there are a number of external factors that will affect the vote in November that are not fully reflected in the polls from the past few days. The Romney campaign released a memo this morning from their pollster, Neil Newhouse, on the current state of the race. Newhouse makes a number of points that should give Republicans hope:

Turning Massachusetts Red, Part II

Almost two months ago, I wrote a post titled "Turning Massachusetts Red," about several of the Republican Congressional candidates running in Massachusetts, Sean Bielat, Jon Golnik, Jeff Semon, and Chris Sheldon:

Ouch! Gallup numbers are UGLY for Obama

I bet my mother would not approve of the language they used at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue when they saw this map. 

A Gallup survey of state-by-state presidential approval numbers taken earlier this year painted a very ugly picture for Obama's reelection chances.

Mathematical breakdown behind Gingrich's troubles in Florida

Want to know why Newt Gingrich's campaign is falling apart in Florida? Here are the numbers that tell the story:

The Sayfie Review conducted a survey of likely Republican voters on January 27, 2012 (the day after the CNN debate in Jacksonville), and got some interesting numbers.

Polls: Do they matter?

An interesting look back...here's the Real Clear Politics Average from the GOP Presidential primary race four years ago (figures from November 30, 2007):

Rudy Giuliani - 28.5%
Fred Thompson - 14.2%
John McCain - 12.8%
Mitt Romney - 12.7%
Mike Huckabee - 9.2%
Ron Paul - 4.2%

Another poll asking the wrong question

Here we go again...every time someone does a poll on the Florida Senate race, it's followed by a flurry of overexcited articles and blog posts. Quinnipiac University published their latest poll this week, along with some breathless predictions about what the numbers mean. Crowley Political Report has some good comments here about why the Q-poll goes too far here ("Florida Republican voters can stay home next year because the nominee for U.S. Senate has already been decided, according to Quinnipiac University...").


The primary election isn't until August 2012, and the simple reality is that most people just aren't paying much attention to the Florida Senate race yet. This is reflected in the fact that "Undecided" is still winning the race (45% of Republicans, and 59% of Republican women, have not made up their mind yet).


I'm a political junkie. I live, eat, breathe politics. I love reading the latest news about the candidates, debating proposed legislation, analyzing communication strategies, and finding intriguing little details in campaign finance reports. But most people aren't like me. Even those who almost always vote in almost every election aren't really engaged in this race yet. They'll figure it out by the time next August rolls around, but until then...meh...

New Gallup Poll Shows Cain Nearly Tied With Romney

GALLUP | Cain Surges, Nearly Ties Romney for Lead in GOP Preferences

PRINCETON, NJ -- Republicans' support for Herman Cain has surged to 18%, their support for Rick Perry has sagged to 15%, and their support for Mitt Romney remains relatively stable at 20%...

Ouch: Romney less well-known now than in 2007

Ouch...

Saint Petersblog | Somehow Mitt Romney is less well-known than he was last election cycle

Somehow, Mitt Romney has pulled off something remarkable. He is less well-known than he was in the last election cycle:

Only 27 percent of Americans named Mitt Romney and only 28 percent named Rick Perry. That’s below the same measure taken four years ago in October 2007, when 45 percent could name Rudy Giuliani and 30 percent could name Romney. So, well into his second campaign for president, Romney is now less well-known than he was four years ago, when he ran the first time around. Not exactly encouraging...

Herman Cain's lucky numbers, Part III

More positive numbers coming in for Herman Cain (see Part I and Part II):

IBOPE Zogby Poll: Cain Expands Lead Over GOP Field & Leads Obama, 46% - 44%

Herman Cain's lucky numbers, Part II

Just a follow up on my post a few days ago about Herman Cain's rapid rise in the polls...new reports continue to show very positive numbers for Cain:

Herman Cain's lucky numbers

You'd be smiling too, if you were this guy.

Herman Cain has a lot of reasons to smile. 

It is now clear that his win at the Florida Presidency 5 straw poll was no fluke.

Besides a significant fundraising surge late in the third quarter ending on September 30, great polling numbers continue to pour in, providing statistical evidence to the ample "I like that guy!" anecdotal evidence I've been seeing for months:

The HurriCAIN continues...

It looks like that Zogby poll might not have been a fluke:  

Fox News | Fox News Poll: GOP Race Top Tier Now Romney, Perry, and Cain

Three September debates have shaken-up the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Herman Cain has jumped into the top tier. Rick Perry’s stumbled. Mitt Romney's holding steady.

BREAKING: Herman Cain leads new Zogby poll!

 The "Hurri-CAIN" continues...

IBOPE Zogby Poll: Perry Plummets to 18%; Trails Cain For Lead Among GOP Primary Voters

Rick Perry has tumbled by more than 20 percentage points over the past month among Republican presidential primary voters and is now second to Herman Cain, who leads the field with 28%. 

New Zogby poll shows Perry breaking away from the field

Wow. Zogby posted the results of their latest presidential poll on their website yesterday, and there are some eye-opening numbers:

Zogby International | IBOPE Zogby Poll: Perry Races Far Ahead of Republican Field; 4 Announced GOP Candidates Tie or Lead Obama

(Discussion of results after the jump)

Perrymania

Here's some of the latest news about Rick Perry...plus some exclusive photos and videos from Perry's announcement at the RedState Gathering earlier this month...

"How am I doing? Best week EVER!"

BOOM. Perry's been in the race for less than two weeks, and look at that, there's a new frontrunner in the GOP Presidential race:

GALLUP | Perry Zooms to Front of Pack for 2012 GOP Nomination

Shortly after announcing his official candidacy, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has emerged as rank-and-file Republicans' current favorite for their party's 2012 presidential nomination. Twenty-nine percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide say they are most likely to support Perry, with Mitt Romney next, at 17%.

(Click image to enlarge)

The Wrong Tim Pawlenty Ran for President

You've probably seen the news by now that Tim Pawlenty has dropped out of the Presidential race after a disappointing distant third-place finish in the Iowa straw poll.

I'm sad to see Pawlenty exit the race. I never completely bought into the "Pawlenty is boring" criticism. Running the United States is a big job, and I want an adult in charge. Pawlenty had a solid track record as a fiscally conservative Governor getting elected in and managing Minnesota, which is a blue state. I agree with Melissa Clouthier that executive experience is a "must have" for my Republican Presidential nominee:

RedState | Presidential Primary Priorities - UPDATED

The “executive experience” requirement eliminates some folks, but oh well. I want our next President to know his or her way around the bottom line. He or she should be ok making decisions. A Governor has to be elected by a broad base of folks. A Governor has to stay true to principles but be more pragmatic. A good Governor leads.

I really liked this guy. Darn it.

I saw Pawlenty speak twice this year, at CPAC and at the Faith and Freedom Coalition Conference, and both times he gave wonderful, dynamic speeches. I also had the opportunity to meet Pawlenty earlier this month at a reception in Orlando, and was very impressed with him. (Peter Lee has posted a video of Pawlenty's speech on YouTube). I got to chat with Pawlenty briefly after the speech and found him to be a genuinely warm, intelligent, wonderful person. He would have made an excellent President.