Wednesday, August 31, 2011

New Zogby poll shows Perry breaking away from the field

Wow. Zogby posted the results of their latest presidential poll on their website yesterday, and there are some eye-opening numbers:

Zogby International | IBOPE Zogby Poll: Perry Races Far Ahead of Republican Field; 4 Announced GOP Candidates Tie or Lead Obama

(Discussion of results after the jump)
The poll was conducted on August 25 through 29, and the Republican primary voters sampled picked Rick Perry out of all announced presidential candidates by an overwhelming 44%, more than three times Mitt Romney's 12%. Ron Paul was third with 11%, then Michele Bachmann at 9%, and Herman Cain's 8% (all other announced candidates received 3% or less).

Perry still captured a commanding 30% in a poll that included Chris Christie, Sarah Palin, and Paul Ryan (none of which are official candidates).

Another benefit Perry seems to have is low negatives, at least at this point among Republican primary voters. When Zogby asked respondents which candidate they would never vote for, only 15% said Perry.

There's some good news for the overall Republican field: many of our candidates match up well in head-to-head contests with President Obama. Perry beat him 46% to 44%, Romney won 45% to 40%, Cain tied with Obama at 44%, and Bachmann was only a few points behind, 41% to Obama's 46%. (Christie and Ryan also did well, but they're not candidates.)

Obama's approval numbers continue to dwell at subterranean levels, and it is reassuring to see that we have several solid candidates who are already polling strongly against him.

Is a Perry win inevitable? 52% of Zogby's voters think so. His campaign is off to a strong start, but he has yet to appear on a national stage. Weak debate performances prevented Tim Pawlenty's campaign from ever getting off the ground. The next month will be absolutely crucial for Perry to build and sustain momentum as the 2012 primaries are just around the corner.

What do you think about this poll? Does Perry have a lock on the nomination, or is he peaking too early? Who do you think would be the strongest to put up against Obama?


  1. If Rick ends up committing to P5, do you think that would almost force the other hopefuls that weren't planning to attend to now reconsider?

  2. All the GOP Presidential candidates are *attending* P5 and CPAC-FL. They will participate in the FoxNews debate, give speeches and host their own events. The news about certain candidates not "participating" refers only to the P5 straw poll. Some of the candidates have announced they will not spend any resources or otherwise actively solicit votes in the straw poll. Whether that's because they don't think they can compete, can't afford to do so, or just don't like straw polls, I can't say.


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