Mel Martinez's move changed face of Florida politics

Elections always bring change, but 2010 brought more than usual...especially here in Florida.

Here's an interesting look back on the falling dominoes that reshaped the political landscape in the Sunshine State:

Mel Martinez's move changed face of Florida politics | HeraldTribune.com

Florida's representation in government underwent a huge change in 2010 and voters can either blame or thank former Sen. Mel Martinez, depending on how they feel about it.

Republican Martinez's December 2008 announcement that he would not seek a second term created a domino effect that led to an election year unlike Florida had seen in more than a century.

If Martinez had just stayed put, Gov. Charlie Crist probably would have run for re-election. Same with Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink and Attorney General Bill McCollum. Instead, Florida has a new U.S. senator, a new governor and three new Cabinet members.

And it was a year when Tea Party fervor over federal spending helped Republicans take back four U.S. House seats, including two candidates considered safe when the election cycle began...

(Keep reading)

What surprised you the most about this past election?  Personally, I was not that shocked by Crist's decision to run as an independent, but I was surprised (and pleased!) to see that, instead of drawing away conservative votes from Marco Rubio, Crist swung so far to the left that he stole liberal votes from Kendrick Meek.  The unusual dynamics of the Senate race have been credited with depressing Democratic turnout, and partially assisting Rick Scott win the governor's race. 

...and just as the above-cited article points out...it all started with Mel Martinez. 

Sarah on Flashpoint

Lauren Rowe hosts a great political talk show on Local 6 WKMG called "Flashpoint" and she invited me to join the discussion for her post-election show.  You can watch the show, which was taped the day after the election, here:

Flashpoint November 7, 2010 | 'Flashpoint' Revisits Election Night

Lauren and I are joined by Jeremiah Jaspon, Chair of the Orange County Democratic Party, and Chris Trenkmann, WKMG political reporter, and we discuss the races for Governor, Senate, Congress, as well as the amendments.

It was my first time on the program, and I really enjoyed it.  Besides her hosting duties, Lauren oversees all the production for Flashpoint, so I got a great behind-the-scenes view of how a program like this is put together.  Thanks also to Lauren for giving a great shout-out to my little blog!

...and P.S. to Jeremiah: The GOP is not like bell bottom pants!  (See his comment near the end of the program.)

Just in case you aren't sick of post-election commentary yet

Wow, Tuesday, wow.  I'm still pretty excited about the results.  I've been spending this week relaxing, hanging out with family, cleaning out my car (it is amazing how many palm cards can hide under a car seat), and enjoying all the post-election commentaries. Just thought I'd share a few of my thoughts on Tuesday's results and what it all might mean moving forward...if you're not sick of all the endless election rehashing yet, read on...

Why Kendrick Meek won't drop out, and why it doesn't matter even if he does

Ever since this article appeared in the Wall Street Journal last week, there's been a lot of chatter about whether Kendrick Meek will drop out of the Senate race, presumably to support Charlie Crist and help him defeat Marco Rubio.  I am not worried about this, for several reasons.

First of all, I seriously doubt Meek is going anywhere.  I disagree with him - strongly - on almost all of his policy positions, but I have to respect the hard work he has put into this race.  Meek qualified by petition, a significant accomplishment in any race but even more impressive considering the number of signatures needed for a statewide race.  

Meek is not a guy who is running just for vanity [cough cough Jeff Greene cough cough] or to prove a point, this is a guy who is running because he truly believes in what he's doing and the causes for which he is fighting.  Like I said, I don't agree with him but he's a true believer and I grant a lot more respect for that than I do Charlie's flip-flopping pander-monium (see what I did there?  A little wordplay with "pandemonium" using "pander," Charlie's favorite word.  I'm surprised he hasn't trademarked it yet.  OK, I'm done patting myself on the back for a semi-clever pun).

Anyone who watched the last debate can see that Meek is serious about his campaign and very passionate about his beliefs.  I just don't see him pulling a Nick Saban ("No, I swear I'm not leaving this team!").  The Meek campaign's statement denying any intention to drop out sounded absolutely serious to me, Bill Clinton is scheduled to campaign with him in Central Florida later this month, and Obama himself is recording a radio ad for Meek.  No way a former president and a current president would waste their time or political capital on a candidate who couldn't convince them he was committed to the race.

It's important to consider what Meek stands to gain or lose from staying in versus dropping out.  I'm not sure what sort of plum appointment he could be offered that would really be worthwhile.  Meek doesn't really have the resume for the economic advisory type positions (of course, I never expected a tax cheat like Tim Geithner would get appointed either, so I could be wrong), there's no open seats in Florida to which he could be appointed, so what's left?  An ambassadorship to some itty-bitty country that most of us can't pronounce or find on a map without Google?  I just don't see Meek going for any of this.  

Now, contrast that with the benefits of staying in the race.  Meek has earned nationwide press attention from this race (even though most of the attention has been on Marco vs. Charlie, Meek's name still gets mentioned in the articles), and has earned respect from a lot of people for the dedicated and ethical way he has campaigned.  When compared to Crist's daily changes of opinion, Meek looks even more principled.  If Meek continues through the election and loses gracefully, he will be in a great position to run for some office in 2012.  Keep in mind that Charlie Crist is our governor right now due in no small part to his past strategy of running a "graceful loser" statewide campaigns to help build name recognition before the election where he actually won.

The other issue here is, if Meek does drop out, does it do anything to change the result?  I doubt it.  One of the big reasons is that time has simply run out to make a difference in this election.  Not only are the ballots printed, but absentee ballots have been mailed,  many people have already voted, and early voting starts next week.

Remember, there are no campaign materials allowed inside the polling places.  For Meek's withdrawal to actually benefit Crist, Meek would have to drop out, have a press conference to get as much media attention as possible, immediately and enthusiastically endorse Crist, and hope the media carried the story more than just that day.  Again, it only works if Meek sincerely and loudly endorses Crist.  Any wavering or hesitation, and the media is going to tear it apart as a cynical political maneuver and the voters will not trust it.  Frankly, after a year of Meek loudly criticizing Flip Flop Charlie, I doubt Meek's supporters are inclined to support Crist no matter what is said now.

The Crist campaign would also have to launch an expensive new voter outreach plan to mention that Meek was no longer in the race, bombarding voters with mail, robocalls, TV and radio ads, as well as people stationed at the polls during early voting and on election day.  As the campaigns all heat up in the final weeks of this election season, the fight for attention will be increasingly difficult, and every dollar and every minute spent telling voters not to vote for Meek is a dollar and a minute that can't be spent convincing voters to vote for Crist.  Yes, Charlie is still sitting on a big ol' pile of cash, so he theoretically should have the resources to do this, but any campaign consultant worth their salt can tell you that it is difficult to convey multiple messages at the same time, especially late in a campaign.

Honestly, if Meek does drop out, I expect that some of his supporters will turn to Crist, but I also expect that many of them will lose enthusiasm for this year's election and consider staying home.  The Republicans are looking like a lock for the Cabinet races (knock on wood!), many of the  state's Congressional races are getting settled (Cook Report just downgraded Grayson's chances of re-election from "Toss Up" to "Lean Republican"), and if Scott manages to widen his narrow lead over Sink, then there just won't be any top-of-the-ticket races left to entice the Democrat faithful to show up at the polls.  There isn't anyone out there who is bold enough to say that every Meek vote would definitely go to Crist, and I've seen a number of other commentators remark that the most likely effect of a Meek withdrawal from the race would be a depression of the black voter turnout.   

What do you think?  
 

Rubio's father passes away, Meek is classy, and Crist is, well, Crist...

Our thoughts and prayers go out to Marco Rubio, whose father, Mario Rubio, died last night at the age of 83 from lung cancer and emphysema.  Marco had canceled a debate appearance with his Democratic opponent, Kendrick Meek, to be by his father's side (Charlie Crist had declined to participate), and he was also joined by his mother, brother, and two sisters and extended family.  

Rubio's campaign released this message from Marco:

My father knew hard work and struggle from very early in his life. His mother died when he was only 9 years old. The day after his mother was buried he went to work with his father and did not stop working until he was 78 years old.

He was by far the most unselfish person I have ever known, always focused on others, and never on his own well being. He was especially determined to provide his children opportunities he himself never had.

My dad worked as a street vendor, security guard, apartment building manager and crossing guard.  But for most of his life he was a bartender, and by all accounts a great one. But his greatest success came from the two most important jobs he ever had: husband and father.

He was very proud of my public service. And over the last 18 months he became an expert channel surfer, constantly searching for my next television interview.

I was blessed to be raised by a world class father. And I thank God for allowing my father to live long and healthy enough to see that the sacrifices he made for us were not in vain.

Kendrick Meek also released a statement:

Since learning of the news on Friday morning, I along with my family have kept Marco and his family in our prayers. The passing of a father occurs only once in a lifetime and ever the dutiful son, Marco was where all children would hope to be during this time of family need - at his dad's bedside surrounded by family. That Marco's father could come to this country with next to nothing, raise a loving and growing family to include a son who is a candidate for the U.S. Senate in Florida, is a testament to the strength of the Rubio character and proof positive of the greatness of this nation.

Political differences takes a back seat to the priority at hand - caring for a mother and spending time with family. Let mourning be combined with celebration for a life that is exceptionally American, a life that only a handful of people have ever lived. My wife Leslie, our children, and my mother Carrie extend our condolences to you Marco and your family.

I disagree with Meek on practically every political issue, but he has been a class act in the way he has run his Senate campaign and is showing that classiness again here.  What a warm and sincere statement of sympathy.

Contrast that with Charlie Crist, who released this statement:

[crickets]

Yep, that's right.  Nothing.  Charlie has not said a darn thing.  Seriously, how hard is it to get a staffer to send out a short press release saying that "Our thoughts and prayers are with the Rubio family at this difficult time."  I thought it was pretty pathetic he was blowing off the debate in the first place to go to an AFL-CIO picnic (AGAIN, who the **** are the Republicans who still answer polls saying they support this guy?!), but Charlie's silence today is deafening.  

You know your candidate stinks when...

Interesting analysis from Peter Schorsch at SaintPetersblog on the Florida Senate race...

The latest twisted logic for Florida Democrats: Vote for Meek, so Greene doesn’t win, so Crist can beat Rubio | Saint Petersblog

I think I understand what Peter is saying here as a general concept, but what sticks out in my mind are two things:

1) Wow, the D candidates really stink, huh? How bad must you be when even those who you should be able to count on as your base are voting for you not in real support for your candidacy, but only as an attempt at damage control?   Sad. Just sad.

2) I'm prouder than ever to have endorsed and donated to Marco Rubio in June 2009. His message from the beginning has been that he's a conservative, he's running for the Republican nomination, and looks forward to facing the Democrat nominee in November. Nothing has changed.

Any Democrat who is voting for Crist is just as much of a sellout political opportunist as Charlie. I'm not voting for Kendrick Meek, but he seems like a nice enough guy and has certainly paid his dues to your party.

I love pollsters

As an attorney who practices election/campaign finance law and a campaign consultant, I always find it extremely entertaining when pollsters call me.  Most of the time, I'm more informed on the candidates and issues than the pollster (I've lost track of how many times I've corrected the pronunciation of a candidate's name, or had to hold back laughter and remind myself that the person on the other end of the line is just trying to earn a living by reading a script) and I know I definitely over-analyze and over-think the questions, which usually drives the poor pollster a little batty.

Even before I got into this business, I always tried to make time for political polling calls, on the theory that if someone was so interested in what we little people thought about something that they were willing to pay good money for it, then they might possibly change their behavior based on the results, therefore, by answering the questions, I increase the chances that our elected leaders might actually do what I want them to do.

Anyway, in the past few years, I've become increasingly fascinated by polls.  The results are swayed by so many factors: the sample size, the time of day and day of the week, efforts to match (or not match) the district's true demographics, the wording of the questions, the order of the questions, etc.  Beyond my judgments about whether the poll seems fair, or intended to bring about a particular result, I am also always curious about who is paying for the poll. 

Last night, I got a call from a political pollster.  My notes about the questions asked and my little investigation into the polling company are below the jump...

Money can't buy you class...or Facebook friends

Florida's 2010 election season is already shaping up as one of the most drama-filled in recent history.

Whether it's Charlie Crist managing to shift the state's political gossip-mongers from speculating whether his marriage was a sham (not that there's anything wrong with that) to speculating whether his Republican party registration was a sham, or Alan Grayson trying to have Angie Langley thrown in jail for daring to exercise her First Amendment rights just a few months after mailing all of us in District 8 a copy of the constitution, it's been one heckuva roller coaster ride, and there's still almost three months left before the primaries, and five months before the general elections.


Recently, we've seen two new candidates toss their hats - along with several million dollars of their personal wealth - into the ring: Rick Scott aka Voldemort aka Skeletor, and, most recently, Jeff Greene.

Well, as fans of the Real Housewives of New York City know, Money can't buy you class.

Apparently, money can't buy you Facebook friends either, at least in Jeff Greene's case anyway.  Despite having announced his candidacy over a month ago, a television ad campaign with estimated costs of $1.3 million per week, and repeated proclamations to the press that he's willing to spend "whatever it takes to compete" from his personal billions, Greene seems to be encountering serious difficulties making headway with actual voters.

Greene has a nice shiny website, Twitter account, Facebook fan page, and YouTube channel, but [sob!] the internets aren't showing him much love.  Rick Scott doesn't measure up very well either.  Here's the breakdown comparing Greene's online footprint to other candidates for statewide office (all numbers as of 6/1/2010):